每一個NBA球迷可能都知道球員的正負值（+/-，Plus/Minus），但你是否知道VORP這個評價球員表現得標準呢？
Every NBA fan probably knows the player’s plus/minus (+/-, Plus/Minus), but are you aware of VORP, the standard for evaluating a player’s performance?

首先來看看公式：
VORP=（BPM-2）×MP/Team MIN

注：BPM（Box Plus/Minus）來自Basketball Reference，該模型使用了許多比率型數據，例如籃板率TRB%、助攻率AST%、失誤率TOV%、球權占有率USG%等，然后分別設定一個未知系數a-l。根據公式算出來的BPM數值代表該球員每100回合的貢獻比聯盟平均等級的球員高多少，以聯盟平均等級的球員BPM=0為基礎，而所謂的Replacement Player，即隨時都可以替換掉的球員，被定義為BPM=-2。而BPM=5屬于全明星等級，BPM=-5則為非常差。
Note: BPM (Box Plus/Minus) comes from Basketball Reference, the model uses many ratio-type data, such as rebound rate TRB%, assist rate AST%, turnover rate TOV%, possession rate USG%, etc., and then sets an unknown coefficient a-l respectively. the BPM value calculated according to the formula represents how much higher the player’s contribution per The BPM value calculated according to the formula represents how much higher the player’s contribution per 100 rounds is than the league average player, based on the league average player with BPM=0. The so-called Replacement Player, i.e. a player who can be replaced at any time, is defined as BPM=-2. While BPM=5 belongs to the All-Star level, BPM=-5 is very poor.

從公式中可以看出，球員的百回合凈勝分貢獻超出可替代球員的程度乘以他的上場時間占比就是他的賽季總貢獻了。這里BPM模型就將Replacement Level定義為-2，在具體攻防兩端中，進攻為-1.7，防守為-0.3。
簡單說就是把BPM拿來跟等級的球員Replacement Player相比，再考慮整季的出賽時間，得到整季比Replacement Player高出的價值，就是VORP。
As you can see from the formula, the extent to which a player’s net points contribution per 100 possessions exceeds that of a replaceable player multiplied by his percentage of playing time is his total contribution for the season. Here the BPM model defines the Replacement Level as -2, in the specific offensive and defensive ends, -1.7 for offense and -0.3 for defense.
Simply put, the BPM is compared to the replacement player of the level, and then considering the playing time of the whole season, the value of the whole season is higher than the replacement player, which is VORP.

介紹完公式，我們來看看這個數據可視化結果。在圖中橫軸代表賽季，從1989年到2008年；縱軸代表排名；顏色代表VORP值，顏色越深值越大；而每一個條形代表該賽季選秀進入聯盟得一個球員。圖中有兩種排序方式Actual代表選秀得順序，而Redraft代表按照VORP值排序。
After introducing the formula, let’s take a look at the results of this data visualization. The horizontal axis represents the season, from 1989 to 2008; the vertical axis represents the ranking; the color represents the VORP value, the darker the color the greater the value; and each bar represents a player drafted into the league in that season. There are two ways to sort the chart: Actual represents the order of the draft, while Redraft represents the order by VORP value.


看過NBA的球迷都知道，選秀排名和球員進入聯盟后的實際表現具有一定的差距，比如科比·布萊恩特，1996年以第13順位被選中，進入聯盟，但確是當年VORP值最高的球員。保羅·米爾薩普在2006年以第二輪第47順位被選中，可謂是相當低了，但當年他的VORP值確是最高的。當然，不排除存在像勒布朗·詹姆斯這樣以第1順位被選中，同時當年VORP值最高的球員存在，他的VORP值高達108.6，可謂是一個球隊最不可或缺的球員了。以他在NBA近幾年的表現看來，這一論斷是毋庸置疑的。
Fans who have watched the NBA know that there is a gap between the draft ranking and the actual performance of players entering the league. For example, Kobe Bryant, who was drafted 13th overall in 1996, entered the league, but was indeed the player with the highest VORP value that year. Paul Millsap was drafted in the second round with the 47th pick in 2006, which is quite low, but he did have the highest VORP value that year. Of course, do not rule out the existence of players like LeBron James, who was drafted with the 1st pick and had the highest VORP value that year, with a VORP value of 108.6, which is considered the most indispensable player for a team. With his performance in the NBA in recent years, there is no doubt about this assertion.

數據可視化項目網址：
https://pudding.cool/2017/03/redraft/

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